For much of Tairāwhiti, the season is shaping up well, which makes it a slightly unusual time to be talking about preparing for a dry summer.
We've come through one of the better lambing seasons in recent years, young cattle are achieving liveweight gains of 1.5kg a day or more, and pasture covers are building. Recent gentle rain has been particularly welcome for those with summer crops in the ground, and strong livestock prices, with meat schedules approaching $10/kg, are giving farmers some much-needed confidence.
After several challenging years for our region, it's good to see things going well.
But experience tells us just how quickly conditions can change on the East Coast. A few weeks of drying westerlies can turn a comfortable feed position into a very different situation, and suddenly we're watching the forecast, managing declining pasture covers and making decisions under pressure.
With the possibility of El Niño conditions ahead, now is a sensible time to consider what a dry summer might mean for individual farming businesses, while there is still some flexibility to respond.
Plan for both possibilities
The challenge is preparing for a genuinely difficult summer without making decisions that leave the business unnecessarily exposed if the rain keeps coming.
That means thinking through both scenarios: a prolonged dry period where feed and stock water become limiting, and a relatively mild summer where pasture growth continues and there is more feed available than anticipated.
Neither outcome is certain, but having a plan for both puts farmers in a much stronger position.
Stock water is a good place to start. Most farmers know which parts of their properties become difficult as summer progresses, particularly where water supplies are less reliable. Grazing those areas earlier and retaining country with dependable water for capital stock later in the season may provide some valuable options.
It's also worth checking pumps, pipelines and other water infrastructure now. Once dry conditions begin to affect the wider district, the people who service and repair these systems are likely to be in high demand. We've seen that before.
Make stock decisions while the market is still working in your favour
One of the more difficult decisions in a good season is knowing when to sell.
With feed available and prices strong, there is always a reasonable argument for holding stock a little longer, whether that's to gain another few kilograms, finish lambs to a higher weight or take advantage of a potentially better schedule.
The risk is that everyone else is making the same calculation.
If conditions deteriorate across the region, the number of animals coming forward can increase quickly, while the number of willing buyers may fall. What was a strong selling market can change considerably in a relatively short period.
It's worth identifying now which ewes and cows are due for culling, which trade cattle could be moved earlier, and whether some lambs might be better sold store rather than carried through to finishing.
There won't be one answer that suits every property, and decisions will depend on feed, stock classes, markets and individual business circumstances. The important thing is to make those assessments early, rather than waiting until a shortage of feed or water begins making the decisions for you.
Protecting the condition and performance of valuable capital stock should remain a priority.
Keep the financial picture current
Strong livestock prices are welcome, particularly after the financial pressure many farming businesses have experienced in recent years. But a good schedule doesn't necessarily translate into a good financial result if seasonal conditions force stock to be sold earlier or at lighter weights.
A budget built around lambs returning $150 a head looks quite different if changing circumstances mean those same lambs return $100.
The problem comes when expenditure continues on the basis of the original budget, despite the income position having changed. The resulting pressure on overdrafts, interest costs and cashflow can build quickly.
Reviewing budgets now, including the assumptions around stock sales, weights and timing, will help identify where adjustments might be needed. It may also be sensible to reconsider the timing of discretionary expenditure or capital projects until there is greater certainty around the season.
For many Tairāwhiti farmers, the 2023/24 financial year is a recent reminder of how quickly difficult seasonal conditions, market pressures and rising costs can combine.
Those experiences are worth drawing on, not because we should expect a repeat, but because they offer useful lessons about maintaining flexibility and protecting the underlying business.
Draw on the experience around us
One of the strengths of farming in Tairāwhiti is the depth of practical knowledge across our communities.
We have generations of farmers and landowners who have worked through droughts, floods, difficult markets and periods of high interest rates. Many have had to make hard decisions in circumstances not unlike those we may face again.
There is considerable value in those conversations, whether they happen around a kitchen table, at the yards or over a cup of tea.
The same applies to conversations with farm advisers, accountants, bankers, vets and others who understand the business. Sometimes another perspective is useful in testing assumptions, identifying options or simply bringing some clarity to decisions that are becoming difficult.
For Māori land trusts and incorporations, these conversations are equally important in supporting good governance, particularly where decisions made today can have implications for future production, financial resilience and the longer-term aspirations of owners.
Preparation is about keeping options open
None of this is a reason to be alarmed about the summer ahead. Conditions are favourable across much of the region, livestock prices are providing some welcome relief, and there is every reason to make the most of a good growing season.
But there is a difference between enjoying a good season and assuming it will continue.
Planning now gives farmers and landowners the opportunity to make considered decisions about stock, water, feed and finances, rather than having those decisions dictated by circumstances later.
And if El Niño turns out to be less severe than anticipated, there is still plenty to be gained. Stock can be grown on, pasture covers rebuilt and businesses positioned well for the following season.
For Tairāwhiti, where seasonal variability is part of farming and resilience is something our landowners understand well, the principle is a familiar one.
The best time to prepare for a dry summer is while the paddocks are still green, the stock is doing well and there are choices to be made.